Open Access

Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with malignant melanoma: A population analysis

  • Authors:
    • Jin Yang
    • Zhenyu Pan
    • Quan Zhou
    • Qingqing Liu
    • Fanfan Zhao
    • Xiaojie Feng
    • Jun Lyu
  • View Affiliations

  • Published online on: August 6, 2019     https://doi.org/10.3892/ol.2019.10720
  • Pages: 3591-3598
  • Copyright: © Yang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License.

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Abstract

The aim of the current study was to develop and validate a nomogram based on a large population to estimate the 3‑ and 5‑year survival rates of patients with malignant melanoma (MM). Patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database and randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. A nomogram was developed, and was used to assess the accuracy of the model. Independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) rate were identified through multivariate analysis, and were included in the internal validation of the nomogram. The nomogram provided high C‑indexes for the training cohort [area under the time‑dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.877 for 3‑year OS rate and 0.872 for 5‑year OS rate] and the validation cohort (AUC of 0.880 for 3‑year OS rate and 0.874 for 5‑year OS rate), indicating that the model had good discrimination ability. Calibration plots showed that the predicted 3‑ and 5‑year OS rates probabilities for the training and validation groups were almost identical to the actual observations. The 3‑ and 5‑year decision curves indicated net benefits for both the training and validation cohorts. The nomogram may aid clinicians to provide more accurate prognosis prediction in patient consultations and more personalized postoperative management plans.

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October 2019
Volume 18 Issue 4

Print ISSN: 1792-1074
Online ISSN:1792-1082

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Copy and paste a formatted citation
APA
Yang, J., Pan, Z., Zhou, Q., Liu, Q., Zhao, F., Feng, X., & Lyu, J. (2019). Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with malignant melanoma: A population analysis. Oncology Letters, 18, 3591-3598. https://doi.org/10.3892/ol.2019.10720
MLA
Yang, J., Pan, Z., Zhou, Q., Liu, Q., Zhao, F., Feng, X., Lyu, J."Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with malignant melanoma: A population analysis". Oncology Letters 18.4 (2019): 3591-3598.
Chicago
Yang, J., Pan, Z., Zhou, Q., Liu, Q., Zhao, F., Feng, X., Lyu, J."Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with malignant melanoma: A population analysis". Oncology Letters 18, no. 4 (2019): 3591-3598. https://doi.org/10.3892/ol.2019.10720